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Modelli meteo GFS ed ECMWF Previsioni a 16 giorni
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OBSERVATION × FORECAST · PILOT

Kaimaktsalan

What are GFS and ECMWF predicting at the time of the latest station reading?

← Live Weather map · Refresh comparison

Selected forecast: Latest available
Uses the forecast available when each sample was recorded. Select an earlier forecast age to evaluate predictions made days in advance.

LAST 24 HOURS · RECORDED COMPARISONS

Forecast Accuracy

GFS (USA Forecast Model)

77%

131 temperature samples · 4 matched rain periods
Temperature + precipitation · Higher is better
Penalty: rain not forecast in the matching period:
Thu 22/10 03:00 – Thu 22/10 06:00
Observed: 0.80 mm · Forecast: 0.00 mm
Rain forecast for a different period does not count as a hit in this period.
Forecasts from 6 hours and 25 minutes–12 hours and 15 minutes ago

ECMWF (European Forecast Model)

94%

97 temperature samples · 3 matched rain periods
Temperature + precipitation · Higher is better
Forecasts from 6 hours and 45 minutes–13 hours and 45 minutes ago

A gradual agreement score: each temperature sample starts at 100 and loses 5 points per °C of error; each matched rain period loses 10 points per mm of error, with a minimum of zero. Recorded rain of at least 0.2 mm with less than 0.1 mm forecast receives zero for that rain period. When any period has at least 0.2 mm observed or forecast, only those wet periods form the rain average; correctly dry periods cannot dilute missed rain. Temperature and rain averages carry equal weight when both are available. Wind is excluded. Rain uses matching intervals; cumulative readings may be interpolated across gaps of up to 20 minutes at interval boundaries. Counter resets and forecast snow are excluded. Until rainfall history is available, only temperature is scored. This is a site-defined comparison scale, not a statistical probability or a standard measure of forecast accuracy.

Observation: Fri 23/10 01:55 · Europe/Athens · 13 minutes old
40.911° N, 21.804° E · 2130 m altitude. Checked Fri 23/10 02:08.

● LIVE STATION

Observed

4.1 °C

Wind: NW · 16 km/h

Humidity: 89 %

Pressure: 1017 hPa

Rain today: 0 mm
Rain rate now: 0 mm/h

Weather station page ↗
FORECAST AT CURRENT OBSERVATION

GFS (USA Forecast Model)

8.0 °C

+3.9 °C versus observed

Wind: 11.2 km/h

Forecast rain: 0.6 mm
Fri 23/10 00:00 – Fri 23/10 03:00
Period still in progress — not yet included in the rain score.

Run: Thu 22/10 15:00
Valid time: Fri 23/10 01:55
Forecast from 10 hours and 55 minutes ago
Matched from Fri 23/10 00:00 to Fri 23/10 03:00

Latest GFS forecast ↗
FORECAST AT CURRENT OBSERVATION

ECMWF (European Forecast Model)

6.3 °C

+2.2 °C versus observed

Wind: 15.1 km/h

Forecast rain: <0.1 mm
Fri 23/10 00:00 – Fri 23/10 03:00
Period still in progress — not yet included in the rain score.

Run: Thu 22/10 15:00
Valid time: Fri 23/10 01:55
Forecast from 10 hours and 55 minutes ago
Matched from Fri 23/10 00:00 to Fri 23/10 03:00

Latest ECMWF forecast ↗
RAINFALL CONTEXT

Rain at the station & in the models

Station rain rate: 0 mm/h · Station rain today: 0 mm

GFS: 0.6 mm total precipitation for Fri 23/10 00:00–Fri 23/10 03:00.

ECMWF: 0.0 mm total precipitation for Fri 23/10 00:00–Fri 23/10 03:00.

Model precipitation includes rain and snow water equivalent over the whole interval, which may extend into the future. It cannot be subtracted from an instantaneous rain rate or a partial-day station total.

Rainfall · last 24 hours

The daily counter resets at midnight. A zero rain rate now does not mean it did not rain earlier.

Station daily rain counter (mm)

0.000.400.801.201.60 Thu 22/10 02:08Fri 23/10 02:08

Below, only completed periods with matching observation boundaries are compared. These rain periods contribute to the overall score with equal weight to temperature. Missing periods are not treated as zero rain.

GFS (USA Forecast Model)

Thu 22/10 03:00 – Thu 22/10 06:00
Station observation: 0.80 mm
GFS: 0.00 mm
Thu 22/10 12:00 – Thu 22/10 15:00
Station observation: 0.00 mm
GFS: 0.11 mm
Thu 22/10 15:00 – Thu 22/10 18:00
Station observation: 0.00 mm
GFS: 0.21 mm
Thu 22/10 18:00 – Thu 22/10 21:00
Station observation: 0.00 mm
GFS: 0.42 mm

ECMWF (European Forecast Model)

Thu 22/10 12:00 – Thu 22/10 15:00
Station observation: 0.00 mm
ECMWF: 0.53 mm
Thu 22/10 15:00 – Thu 22/10 18:00
Station observation: 0.00 mm
ECMWF: 0.20 mm
Thu 22/10 18:00 – Thu 22/10 21:00
Station observation: 0.00 mm
ECMWF: 0.46 mm
FORECAST ONLY

Fresh snowfall

Model estimate for the forecast interval covering the observation time.

GFS
0.0 cm

No fresh snow forecast in this interval

Fri 23/10 00:00–Fri 23/10 03:00
ECMWF
0.0 cm

No fresh snow forecast in this interval

Fri 23/10 00:00–Fri 23/10 03:00

Snowfall is not measured by this station. These are the site's existing fresh-snow estimates, not measured snowfall or snow depth. The interval may extend into the future; no snowfall error or verification score is calculated.

Forecast minus observation at Fri 23/10 01:55
DifferenceGFSECMWF
Temperature (°C)+3.9+2.2
Wind speed (km/h)-4.8-0.9

This snapshot: the models differ by 1.7 °C. ECMWF is closer to the observed temperature. This is one comparison, not an overall model ranking.

ROLLING HISTORY

The last 24 hours

A snapshot every ten minutes. The graphs show the last 24 hours; older records are retained for future analysis. Gaps longer than 30 minutes are left disconnected.

Temperature history · last 24 hours
Time (Greece)Observed (°C)GFS (°C)GFS difference (°C)ECMWF (°C)ECMWF difference (°C)
Fri 23/10 01:454.1 8.1+4.06.3+2.2
Fri 23/10 01:353.8 8.1+4.36.4+2.6
Fri 23/10 01:253.8 8.2+4.46.4+2.6
Fri 23/10 01:054.0 8.3+4.36.5+2.5
Fri 23/10 00:554.1 8.4+4.36.6+2.5
Fri 23/10 00:454.0 8.4+4.46.7+2.7
Fri 23/10 00:354.0 8.5+4.56.7+2.7
Fri 23/10 00:254.4 8.5+4.16.8+2.4
Fri 23/10 00:154.3 8.6+4.36.8+2.5
Fri 23/10 00:054.2 8.7+4.56.9+2.7
Thu 22/10 23:554.3 8.7+4.46.9+2.6
Thu 22/10 23:454.3 8.7+4.47.0+2.7
Thu 22/10 23:354.4 8.8+4.47.0+2.6
Thu 22/10 23:254.6 8.8+4.27.0+2.4
Thu 22/10 23:154.8 8.8+4.07.1+2.3
Thu 22/10 23:054.7 8.9+4.27.1+2.4
Thu 22/10 22:554.8 8.9+4.17.2+2.4
Thu 22/10 22:454.8 8.9+4.17.3+2.5
Thu 22/10 22:354.9 8.9+4.07.3+2.4
Thu 22/10 22:254.8 9.0+4.27.4+2.6
Thu 22/10 22:154.9 9.0+4.17.4+2.5
Thu 22/10 22:055.0 9.0+4.07.4+2.4
Thu 22/10 21:555.1 9.0+3.97.5+2.4
Thu 22/10 21:455.2 9.1+3.97.5+2.3
Thu 22/10 21:355.3 9.1+3.87.6+2.3
Thu 22/10 21:255.3 9.1+3.87.6+2.3
Thu 22/10 21:155.3 9.2+3.97.6+2.3
Thu 22/10 21:055.4 9.2+3.87.7+2.3
Thu 22/10 20:555.6 9.2+3.67.7+2.1
Thu 22/10 20:455.7 9.3+3.67.7+2.0
Thu 22/10 20:355.7 9.3+3.67.8+2.1
Thu 22/10 20:256.0 9.4+3.47.8+1.8
Thu 22/10 20:156.2 9.4+3.27.8+1.6
Thu 22/10 20:056.1 9.4+3.37.9+1.8
Thu 22/10 19:556.1 9.5+3.47.9+1.8
Thu 22/10 19:456.1 9.5+3.47.9+1.8
Thu 22/10 19:356.2 9.6+3.47.9+1.7
Thu 22/10 19:256.5 9.6+3.18.0+1.5
Thu 22/10 19:156.4 9.7+3.38.0+1.6
Thu 22/10 19:056.5 9.7+3.28.0+1.5
Thu 22/10 18:556.6 9.8+3.28.0+1.4
Thu 22/10 18:456.8 9.8+3.08.1+1.3
Thu 22/10 18:356.9 9.8+2.98.1+1.2
Thu 22/10 18:257.2 9.9+2.78.1+0.9
Thu 22/10 18:157.1 9.9+2.88.2+1.1
Thu 22/10 18:057.2 10.0+2.88.2+1.0
Thu 22/10 17:557.4 10.0+2.68.2+0.8
Thu 22/10 17:357.9 10.0+2.18.2+0.3
Thu 22/10 17:257.9 10.0+2.18.2+0.3
Thu 22/10 17:157.8 10.0+2.28.2+0.4
Thu 22/10 17:058.3 10.0+1.78.1-0.2
Thu 22/10 16:258.8 10.0+1.28.1-0.7
Thu 22/10 16:159.2 10.0+0.88.1-1.1
Thu 22/10 16:058.8 10.0+1.28.1-0.7
Thu 22/10 15:558.8 10.0+1.28.1-0.7
Thu 22/10 15:459.3 10.0+0.78.1-1.3
Thu 22/10 15:358.3 10.0+1.78.1-0.2
Thu 22/10 15:258.4 10.0+1.68.0-0.4
Thu 22/10 15:158.6 10.0+1.48.0-0.6
Thu 22/10 15:058.7 10.0+1.38.0-0.7
Thu 22/10 14:557.8 10.0+2.28.0+0.2
Thu 22/10 14:457.9 9.9+2.07.9+0.0
Thu 22/10 14:358.3 9.8+1.57.9-0.4
Thu 22/10 14:258.2 9.7+1.57.9-0.3
Thu 22/10 14:159.1 9.7+0.67.8-1.3
Thu 22/10 14:058.7 9.6+0.97.8-0.9
Thu 22/10 13:558.3 9.5+1.27.7-0.6
Thu 22/10 13:458.6 9.4+0.87.7-0.9
Thu 22/10 13:357.9 9.3+1.47.7-0.2
Thu 22/10 13:258.1 9.3+1.27.6-0.5
Thu 22/10 13:158.2 9.2+1.07.6-0.6
Thu 22/10 12:557.8 9.0+1.27.5-0.3
Thu 22/10 12:458.2 9.0+0.87.5-0.7
Thu 22/10 12:358.2 8.9+0.77.4-0.8
Thu 22/10 12:257.7 8.8+1.17.4-0.3
Thu 22/10 12:157.5 8.7+1.27.4-0.1
Thu 22/10 12:057.8 8.6+0.87.3-0.5
Thu 22/10 11:557.4 8.6+1.27.3-0.1
Thu 22/10 11:457.2 8.5+1.37.3+0.1
Thu 22/10 11:357.1 8.5+1.47.3+0.2
Thu 22/10 11:257.0 8.4+1.47.3+0.3
Thu 22/10 11:156.8 8.4+1.67.3+0.5
Thu 22/10 11:057.0 8.3+1.37.2+0.2
Thu 22/10 10:556.9 8.3+1.47.2+0.3
Thu 22/10 10:457.1 8.2+1.17.4+0.3
Thu 22/10 10:356.9 8.2+1.37.4+0.5
Thu 22/10 10:256.8 8.1+1.37.3+0.5
Thu 22/10 10:157.0 8.1+1.17.3+0.3
Thu 22/10 10:056.9 8.0+1.17.3+0.4
Thu 22/10 09:557.1 8.0+0.97.3+0.2
Thu 22/10 09:456.8 7.9+1.17.3+0.5
Thu 22/10 09:356.8 7.9+1.17.3+0.5
Thu 22/10 09:256.7 7.8+1.17.3+0.6
Thu 22/10 08:556.5 7.7+1.27.3+0.8
Thu 22/10 08:456.3 7.7+1.47.3+1.0
Thu 22/10 08:356.3 7.7+1.47.3+1.0
Thu 22/10 08:256.3 7.7+1.47.3+1.0
Thu 22/10 08:156.3 7.7+1.4UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 07:456.3 7.7+1.4UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 07:356.3 7.7+1.4UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 07:256.3 7.8+1.5UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 07:156.3 7.8+1.5UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 07:056.3 7.8+1.5UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 06:556.3 7.8+1.5UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 06:456.4 7.8+1.4UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 06:256.4 7.8+1.4UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 06:156.4 7.8+1.4UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 06:056.4 7.8+1.4UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 05:556.4 7.8+1.4UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 05:456.6 7.9+1.3UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 05:356.6 7.9+1.3UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 05:256.6 8.0+1.4UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 05:156.6 8.0+1.4UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 05:056.6 8.0+1.4UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 04:556.5 8.1+1.6UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 04:456.6 8.1+1.5UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 04:356.6 8.2+1.6UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 04:256.6 8.2+1.6UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 04:156.6 8.3+1.7UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 04:056.7 8.3+1.6UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 03:556.7 8.4+1.7UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 03:456.7 8.4+1.7UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 03:356.7 8.4+1.7UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 03:256.8 8.5+1.7UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 03:156.8 8.6+1.8UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 03:056.8 8.7+1.9UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 02:556.9 8.7+1.8UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 02:457.0 8.7+1.7UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 02:357.0 8.7+1.7UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 02:256.9 8.7+1.8UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 02:156.9 8.7+1.8UnavailableUnavailable

Newest readings first. Forecasts follow the selected forecast age. Positive differences mean the model is warmer than the station.

● Observed● GFS● ECMWF

131 recorded samples · Latest observation Fri 23/10 01:45

Each sample preserves the models available when it was collected; later runs do not rewrite older comparisons. Scores and model lines follow the selected forecast age. Days ahead are measured from model initialization to observation time; the actual lead is shown on each card. Snowfall is not measured by the station, so there is no observed snowfall comparison graph.

How to interpret this pilot

Temperature and wind speed use the site's existing coordinate interpolation and altitude adjustment. We linearly interpolate their forecast values between the steps surrounding the observation time; these are estimates between model steps, not new observations. Positive differences mean the model is warmer or windier.

Station wind exposure and averaging periods may differ from the models. Spatial resolution, terrain and sensor quality can also affect agreement. Latest available uses the run saved with each observation. Earlier lead times use immutable archived runs saved before the observation, with the same coordinates and altitude. Archive collection starts now; earlier missing forecasts are not reconstructed.

One matched sample cannot establish correlation, bias or forecast skill. Those require repeated observations paired with archived forecasts and defined lead times. No automatic forecast correction is applied.

Only fresh Kaimaktsalan readings are used. Missing or suspect measurements remain unavailable. Results are cached for two minutes; use Refresh comparison for the latest snapshot.