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GFS & ECMWF weather models 16-day outlook
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OBSERVATION × FORECAST · PILOT

Loutsa Forward

What are GFS and ECMWF predicting at the time of the latest station reading?

← Live Weather map · Refresh comparison

Selected forecast: Latest available
Uses the forecast available when each sample was recorded. Select an earlier forecast age to evaluate predictions made days in advance.

LAST 24 HOURS · RECORDED COMPARISONS

Forecast Accuracy

GFS (USA Forecast Model)

92%

135 temperature samples · 0 matched rain periods
Temperature only · rainfall history pending · Higher is better
Forecasts from 6 hours and 25 minutes–12 hours and 56 minutes ago

ECMWF (European Forecast Model)

93%

67 temperature samples · 0 matched rain periods
Temperature only · rainfall history pending · Higher is better
Forecasts from 23 hours and 25 minutes–35 hours and 56 minutes ago

A gradual agreement score: each temperature sample starts at 100 and loses 5 points per °C of error; each matched rain period loses 10 points per mm of error, with a minimum of zero. Temperature and rain averages carry equal weight when both are available. Wind is excluded. Rain requires matching interval boundaries and excludes counter resets and forecast snow. Until rainfall history is available, only temperature is scored. This is a site-defined comparison scale, not a statistical probability or a standard measure of forecast accuracy.

Observation: Thu 22/10 02:16 · Europe/Athens · 8 minutes old
37.99113° N, 24.02816° E · 10 m altitude. Checked Thu 22/10 02:24.

● LIVE STATION

Observed

18.0 °C

Wind: SE · 3 km/h

Humidity: 89 %

Pressure: 1019 hPa

MODEL ESTIMATE

GFS (USA Forecast Model)

19.6 °C

+1.6 °C versus observed

Wind: 3.6 km/h

Run: Wed 21/10 15:00
Valid time: Thu 22/10 02:16
Forecast from 11 hours and 16 minutes ago
Matched from Thu 22/10 00:00 to Thu 22/10 03:00

Latest GFS forecast ↗
MODEL ESTIMATE

ECMWF (European Forecast Model)

A fresh, time-matched forecast is unavailable.

Latest ECMWF forecast ↗
RAINFALL CONTEXT

Rain at the station & in the models

Station rain rate: 0 mm/h · Station rain today: 0 mm

GFS: 0.1 mm total precipitation for Thu 22/10 00:00–Thu 22/10 03:00.

Model precipitation includes rain and snow water equivalent over the whole interval, which may extend into the future. It cannot be subtracted from an instantaneous rain rate or a partial-day station total.

FORECAST ONLY

Fresh snowfall

Model estimate for the forecast interval covering the observation time.

GFS
0.0 cm

No fresh snow forecast in this interval

Thu 22/10 00:00–Thu 22/10 03:00
ECMWF
— Unavailable

No estimate available

Snowfall is not measured by this station. These are the site's existing fresh-snow estimates, not measured snowfall or snow depth. The interval may extend into the future; no snowfall error or verification score is calculated.

Forecast minus observation at Thu 22/10 02:16
DifferenceGFSECMWF
Temperature (°C)+1.6Unavailable
Wind speed (km/h)+0.6Unavailable
ROLLING HISTORY

The last 24 hours

A snapshot every ten minutes. The graphs show the last 24 hours; older records are retained for future analysis. Gaps longer than 30 minutes are left disconnected.

Temperature history · last 24 hours
Time (Greece)Observed (°C)GFS (°C)GFS difference (°C)ECMWF (°C)ECMWF difference (°C)
Thu 22/10 02:1618.0 19.6+1.6UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 02:0518.0 19.7+1.7UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 01:5518.0 19.7+1.7UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 01:4518.0 19.7+1.7UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 01:3518.0 19.7+1.7UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 01:2518.0 19.8+1.8UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 01:1518.0 19.8+1.8UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 01:0518.0 19.8+1.8UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 00:5518.0 19.8+1.8UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 00:4518.0 19.9+1.9UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 00:3518.0 19.9+1.9UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 00:2518.0 19.9+1.9UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 00:1518.0 20.0+2.0UnavailableUnavailable
Thu 22/10 00:0519.0 20.0+1.0UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 23:5618.0 20.0+2.0UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 23:4518.0 20.1+2.1UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 23:3619.0 20.1+1.1UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 23:2520.0 20.1+0.1UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 23:1620.0 20.2+0.2UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 23:0520.0 20.2+0.2UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 22:5619.0 20.2+1.2UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 22:4519.0 20.3+1.3UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 22:3619.0 20.3+1.3UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 22:2519.0 20.4+1.4UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 22:1619.0 20.4+1.4UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 22:0519.0 20.4+1.4UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 21:5520.0 20.5+0.5UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 21:4519.0 20.5+1.5UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 21:3520.0 20.6+0.6UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 21:2520.0 20.5+0.5UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 21:1520.0 20.6+0.6UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 21:0520.0 20.6+0.6UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 20:5520.0 20.6+0.6UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 20:4520.0 20.7+0.7UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 20:3520.0 20.8+0.8UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 20:2520.0 20.9+0.9UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 20:1520.0 20.9+0.9UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 20:0520.0 21.0+1.0UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 19:5620.0 21.1+1.1UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 19:4520.0 21.1+1.1UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 19:3620.0 21.2+1.2UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 19:2520.0 21.3+1.3UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 19:1520.0 21.4+1.4UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 19:0521.0 21.4+0.4UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 18:5521.0 21.5+0.5UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 18:4521.0 21.6+0.6UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 18:3521.0 21.6+0.6UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 18:2521.0 21.7+0.7UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 18:1521.0 21.8+0.8UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 18:0522.0 21.9-0.1UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 17:5522.0 21.9-0.1UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 17:4522.0 22.00.0UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 17:3521.0 22.0+1.0UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 17:2521.0 22.1+1.1UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 17:1521.0 22.2+1.2UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 17:0521.0 22.2+1.2UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 16:5621.0 22.3+1.3UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 16:4521.0 22.3+1.3UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 16:3621.0 22.4+1.4UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 16:2521.0 22.4+1.4UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 16:1621.0 22.5+1.5UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 16:0521.0 22.5+1.5UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 15:5521.0 22.6+1.6UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 15:4521.0 22.7+1.7UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 15:3521.0 22.7+1.7UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 15:2520.0 22.9+2.9UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 15:1520.0 22.9+2.9UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 15:0520.0 23.0+3.0UnavailableUnavailable
Wed 21/10 14:5620.0 23.0+3.022.0+2.0
Wed 21/10 14:4520.0 22.9+2.921.8+1.8
Wed 21/10 14:3520.0 22.8+2.821.7+1.7
Wed 21/10 14:2521.0 22.7+1.721.6+0.6
Wed 21/10 14:1621.0 22.6+1.621.5+0.5
Wed 21/10 14:0520.0 22.5+2.521.4+1.4
Wed 21/10 13:5521.0 22.5+1.521.3+0.3
Wed 21/10 13:4520.0 22.4+2.421.2+1.2
Wed 21/10 13:2521.0 22.2+1.220.9-0.1
Wed 21/10 13:1520.0 22.1+2.120.8+0.8
Wed 21/10 13:0520.0 22.0+2.020.7+0.7
Wed 21/10 12:5521.0 22.0+1.020.6-0.4
Wed 21/10 12:4521.0 21.9+0.920.5-0.5
Wed 21/10 12:3521.0 21.8+0.820.4-0.6
Wed 21/10 12:2521.0 21.7+0.720.3-0.7
Wed 21/10 12:1521.0 21.6+0.620.2-0.8
Wed 21/10 12:0521.0 21.5+0.520.1-0.9
Wed 21/10 11:5521.0 21.4+0.419.9-1.1
Wed 21/10 11:4521.0 21.3+0.319.6-1.4
Wed 21/10 11:3521.0 21.2+0.219.3-1.7
Wed 21/10 11:2521.0 21.1+0.119.0-2.0
Wed 21/10 11:1520.0 20.9+0.918.7-1.3
Wed 21/10 11:0520.0 20.8+0.818.4-1.6
Wed 21/10 10:5520.0 20.7+0.718.2-1.8
Wed 21/10 10:4520.0 20.5+0.517.9-2.1
Wed 21/10 10:3520.0 20.4+0.417.6-2.4
Wed 21/10 10:2520.0 20.3+0.317.3-2.7
Wed 21/10 10:1520.0 20.2+0.217.0-3.0
Wed 21/10 10:0519.0 20.0+1.016.7-2.3
Wed 21/10 09:5619.0 20.2+1.216.5-2.5
Wed 21/10 09:4520.0 20.0+0.016.2-3.8
Wed 21/10 09:3619.0 19.9+0.915.9-3.1
Wed 21/10 09:2518.0 19.7+1.715.6-2.4
Wed 21/10 09:1618.0 19.6+1.615.4-2.6
Wed 21/10 09:0517.0 19.5+2.515.0-2.0
Wed 21/10 08:5617.0 19.4+2.414.9-2.1
Wed 21/10 08:4516.0 19.3+3.314.8-1.2
Wed 21/10 08:3616.0 19.3+3.314.8-1.2
Wed 21/10 08:2516.0 19.2+3.214.7-1.3
Wed 21/10 08:1516.0 19.1+3.114.7-1.3
Wed 21/10 08:0515.0 19.1+4.114.6-0.4
Wed 21/10 07:5515.0 19.0+4.014.6-0.4
Wed 21/10 07:4515.0 18.9+3.914.5-0.5
Wed 21/10 07:3515.0 18.9+3.914.5-0.5
Wed 21/10 07:2515.0 18.8+3.814.4-0.6
Wed 21/10 07:1515.0 18.8+3.814.4-0.6
Wed 21/10 07:0516.0 18.7+2.714.3-1.7
Wed 21/10 06:5515.0 18.6+3.614.3-0.7
Wed 21/10 06:4515.0 18.6+3.614.2-0.8
Wed 21/10 06:3516.0 18.5+2.514.2-1.8
Wed 21/10 06:2515.0 18.5+3.514.1-0.9
Wed 21/10 06:1515.0 18.4+3.414.1-0.9
Wed 21/10 06:0515.0 18.3+3.314.0-1.0
Wed 21/10 05:3516.0 18.4+2.414.1-1.9
Wed 21/10 05:2516.0 18.4+2.414.2-1.8
Wed 21/10 05:0516.0 18.5+2.514.2-1.8
Wed 21/10 04:5516.0 18.6+2.614.3-1.7
Wed 21/10 04:3517.0 18.6+1.614.4-2.6
Wed 21/10 04:2517.0 18.7+1.714.4-2.6
Wed 21/10 04:0516.0 18.7+2.714.5-1.5
Wed 21/10 03:5516.0 18.8+2.814.6-1.4
Wed 21/10 03:3515.0 18.9+3.914.6-0.4
Wed 21/10 03:2516.0 18.9+2.914.7-1.3
Wed 21/10 03:0516.0 19.0+3.014.8-1.2
Wed 21/10 02:5516.0 19.0+3.014.8-1.2
Wed 21/10 02:3515.0 19.1+4.115.00.0
Wed 21/10 02:2516.0 19.1+3.115.1-0.9

Newest readings first. Forecasts follow the selected forecast age. Positive differences mean the model is warmer than the station.

● Observed● GFS● ECMWF

135 recorded samples · Latest observation Thu 22/10 02:16

Each sample preserves the models available when it was collected; later runs do not rewrite older comparisons. Scores and model lines follow the selected forecast age. Days ahead are measured from model initialization to observation time; the actual lead is shown on each card. Snowfall is not measured by the station, so there is no observed snowfall comparison graph.

How to interpret this pilot

Temperature and wind speed use the site's existing coordinate interpolation and altitude adjustment. We linearly interpolate their forecast values between the steps surrounding the observation time; these are estimates between model steps, not new observations. Positive differences mean the model is warmer or windier.

Station wind exposure and averaging periods may differ from the models. Spatial resolution, terrain and sensor quality can also affect agreement. Latest available uses the run saved with each observation. Earlier lead times use immutable archived runs saved before the observation, with the same coordinates and altitude. Archive collection starts now; earlier missing forecasts are not reconstructed.

One matched sample cannot establish correlation, bias or forecast skill. Those require repeated observations paired with archived forecasts and defined lead times. No automatic forecast correction is applied.

Only fresh Loutsa Forward readings are used. Missing or suspect measurements remain unavailable. Results are cached for two minutes; use Refresh comparison for the latest snapshot.